Tangotiger wrote:

---

Here is the log in question:

http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2007-05-08&team=Diamondbacks&dh=0

We see that for this play in question, the LI was 3.13, and the chances of winning (with... ]]> feeds@yuku.com (sbrylski06) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20785 Sat, 07 Nov 2009 20:42:00 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20737/t/Game-Theory-Project.html
So, I need a topic. Obviously, I want to do something baseball related. So I'm here for your ideas. I'll probably post some of mine as they come to me for feedback as well.

I was looking forward to this, and I'm kind of put off on how short of notice he gave. I have to rush through the topic selection.
]]> feeds@yuku.com (sbrylski06) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20737 Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:16:43 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20684/t/How-to-represent-the-value-of-player-production.html
Is the best way to think of the value of player production an exponential curve, or is it more linear? I ask, because obviously an OPS of, say, .750, is far more common than an OPS of 1.000. I hope this makes enough sense for others to understand what I'm asking. I swear it's a valid question inside my head.
]]> feeds@yuku.com (TooLiveBrew) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20684 Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:50:00 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20647/t/Productive-Out-Percentage.html http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/12/on-the-productive-out-percentage/

Teams that make productive outs don't score more runs.

]]> feeds@yuku.com (Baldkin) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20647 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 08:36:26 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20439/t/Postseason-Probability-Added-An-MVP-Award-Metric.html Postseason Probability Added (PPA).

Here's the premise: I wanted to find the player that brought his team closer to the ultimate goal than any other.... ]]> feeds@yuku.com (sbrylski06) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20439 Fri, 18 Sep 2009 23:36:32 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20162/t/wOBA-and-other-stats-compared-to-runs-scored.html LouisEly

A very relevant stat that SBs could factor in, a stat that rarely if ever gets mentioned that I think has some merit, is total bases. Granted that the true definition of total bases includes only hits, but an adjusted total bases statistic (aTB? Apologies to Andre Tanneberger) could take the total bases from hits, add in one base for walks and HBP, and then... ]]> feeds@yuku.com (logan3825) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20162 Fri, 21 Aug 2009 22:36:28 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20075/t/Using-coefficient-of-variation-to-measure-MLB-players-worth.html
The coefficient of variation (CV), sometimes called the relative standard deviation, is often used to assess the quality of an assay,¹ the diversity in organizations² or as a benchmark for ranking.³ It is measured as a fraction or percentage of how much variation exists in a variable in relation to the mean, so it represents a highly useful-and easy to interpret-concept in data analysis.

feeds@yuku.com (Jimbo) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/20075 Thu, 13 Aug 2009 09:12:19 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19734/t/WYNC-s-Radiolab--Streaks---non-independence--individual-even.html Radiolab, what I consider the best show on radio these days, did an hour-long episode on stochasticity a few weeks ago. Jonah Lehrer (Proust was a Neuroscientist) touched on streaks in sports. He made some assertions that people were coins and behaved as such: athletes were going to achieve at their base rate (shooting %, average, etc.) when taken as individual... ]]> feeds@yuku.com (1e Corbeau) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19734 Tue, 21 Jul 2009 06:39:12 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19719/t/Odds--Eric-Gagne-39-s-consecutive-saves-record--broken-.html Can someone help me calculate approximate odds of Eric Gagne's record being broken based on league average save % and league average save opportunites/yr. What I'm looking for is the number of years for it to be likely that the record is broken.

I'm no stats guru, and the numbers I've come up with basically say that it is nearly impossible for the record to be broken based on a league average save %.


pretending that each team only uses one closer,... ]]> feeds@yuku.com (Mays Hayes) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19719 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 10:46:56 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19676/t/Bat-Speed.html ]]> feeds@yuku.com (sbrylski06) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19676 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:47:10 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19275/t/MASN-39-s-Rob-Dibble-amp-Byron-Kerr-tell--Jeter---great-fiel.html

[Context -- Derek Jeter is batting...]

Kerr: Derek Jeter has always been a clutch hitter, especially in the postseason
Dibble: The sabermetric guys say he doesn't have any *range* [scoffs]
feeds@yuku.com (TooLiveBrew) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19275 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:24:23 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19260/t/anyone-know-where-to-find-spary-chart-info-for-players-.html feeds@yuku.com (Backupcatchers) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19260 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 10:20:00 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19010/t/Quality-Starts.html feeds@yuku.com (brewtown82) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/19010 Sun, 17 May 2009 10:35:03 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18659/t/Looking-for-expected-standings-w-confidence-intervals.html http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

With 95% confidence intervals for the win totals. Available? Possible to calculate with data present?
]]> feeds@yuku.com (sbrylski06) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18659 Wed, 06 May 2009 20:49:59 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18615/t/Pick-off-attempt.html ]]> feeds@yuku.com (Schlitz001) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18615 Tue, 05 May 2009 10:52:17 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18510/t/Small-Samples-From-Fangraphs.html http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/small-sample-usefulness

Lesson: Small samples are still samples of useful data.
]]> feeds@yuku.com (sbrylski06) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18510 Wed, 29 Apr 2009 13:43:47 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18413/t/Surprise-we-re-last-with-RISP-again.html
Granted we're low in all team hitting stats, too, but to be dead last and not even close to the next team says something. Some will argue that the stat... ]]> feeds@yuku.com (JET15) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18413 Thu, 23 Apr 2009 07:28:32 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18285/t/pitch-out-.html feeds@yuku.com (TooLiveBrew) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18285 Tue, 14 Apr 2009 19:03:09 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18123/t/UZR-as-it-pertains-to-Hall-Weeks-discussions.html
This is some "fan boy" opinion of the system, I've actually taken the time to understand how it was created and exactly what it does. I feel it leans too heavily towards range because it uses weighted averages that don't cancel out.

UZR is primary based on fielding zones and uses retrosheet data as opposed to feeds@yuku.com (TheCrew07) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/18123 Mon, 06 Apr 2009 18:27:41 GMT http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/17901/t/Tom-Tango-Tangotiger-is-awesome.html Brilliant quasi-rant about the old guard of baseball statistical analysis/knowledge from The Book blog (entry link):

It's taken me a long while to get to where I am in terms of understanding how to use the numbers. It's not for lack of effort or inspiration. It's more in terms of exploration. Bill James and Pete Palmer had to... ]]> feeds@yuku.com (TooLiveBrew) http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/17901 Tue, 24 Mar 2009 11:43:49 GMT