Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (Invader3K) — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 07:24:52 GMT

TheCrew07 wrote:
Melvin was a local radio show here in GB that I caught on my way to practice yesterday and while he discussed a couple of topics including trading/moving Hardy, resigning Sheets never came up. He discussed trying to sell Sabathia on the city, the fans, the stadium, and the franchise to get a bit of a home town discount. He pointed out that money talks with FAs and they normally go where the best contract is, but...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (TheCrew07) — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 07:18:34 GMT

Melvin was a local radio show here in GB that I caught on my way to practice yesterday and while he discussed a couple of topics including trading/moving Hardy, resigning Sheets never came up. He discussed trying to sell Sabathia on the city, the fans, the stadium, and the franchise to get a bit of a home town discount. He pointed out that money talks with FAs and they normally go where the best contract is, but he said he thought Milwaukee now had a small chance to resign Sabathia, where...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (logan3825) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 22:53:26 GMT

There is little doubt in my mind that our rotation without Sheets is much worse. I have little doubt Sheets will be worth whatever he is paid next year and the year after. My questions would be

1. How many games would the Brewers be expected to win without Sheets?
2. How many wins would Sheets add over whoever would be our 5th starter in each year of his contract?
3. At what point will Sheets start to lose velocity?(This is why not having his curve right all of last year...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (TooLiveBrew) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 22:22:11 GMT

I'm uncomfortable being a Suppan apologist, but I don't see any trend that he is worsening.

Not necessarily now, but I think the point was that, with general aging, he shouldn't be expected to improve or even sustain more than he should be expected to slowly fade.

Signing Suppan served as notice to fans and MLB players the team was willing to add experienced veterans to fill holes...

And that's just fan overreaction. Imo...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (rluzinski) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 20:10:18 GMT

Hmm, there definitely is a discrepancy between THT and fangraphs.

You have to add a league constant to get FIP inline with ERA. I'd guess that Fangraphs doesn't calculate a separate constant for the AL and NL.

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (JenksFan5) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 20:02:14 GMT

I have avoided participating in this thread because I am in the pro-Sheets camp and it seems that no matter how much the topic is discussed there is no swaying anyone's set opinion, but I guess I will finally jump in. It is funny how perception becomes reality and people will jump to the conclusion that "Sheets is not a big-game pitcher" and my favorite "Sheets is not a winner". See the most recent game against Chicago when Sheets faced Zambrano when Big Z dominated...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (logan3825) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 17:42:05 GMT

endaround wrote:
And no, Sheets signing a contract is not like Suppan signing a contract. Suppan career FIP is 4.76, Sheets' is 3.54.

If you are trying to say that Sheets is a better pitcher I would agree. He isn't as likley to be out of the starting rotation in 3-4 years like Suppan. Not that Suppan will be out of the starting rotation, but it will probably be argued he should be. I think it is similar because...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (PeaveyFury) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 17:08:31 GMT

I'm seeing 4.42 last year, 5.13 this year and 4.75 for his career.

Hmm, there definitely is a discrepancy between THT and fangraphs.

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (trwi7) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 17:03:20 GMT

PeaveyFury wrote:
His FIP last year was 4.42, distinctly average.

4.30, actually:

http://www.hardballtimes....rs/index.php?playerId=633

I'm seeing 4.42 last year, 5.13 this year and 4.75 for his career.
...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (PeaveyFury) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 16:44:04 GMT

His FIP last year was 4.42, distinctly average.

4.30, actually:

http://www.hardballtimes....rs/index.php?playerId=633

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (endaround) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 15:51:46 GMT

The Brewers likely could fill spots 1-5 with better pitchers. Suppan was decent last year. This year he's been bad. His FIP last year was 4.42, distinctly average. This year its 5.15, 5th starter bad. And he's not likely to get better. If the Brewers can trade him no problem, it becomes an ok signing. If they can't he becomes an anchor. And no, Sheets signing a contract is not like Suppan signing a contract. Suppan career FIP is 4.76, Sheets' is 3.54.

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (joepepsi) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 13:28:03 GMT

If they can fill spots 1-4 with pitchers better than Suppan the next two years then this stands to be a very good ballclub. Even in Soup is the no. 5 guy.

The "key" talent isn't all locked up, unless you consider Braun the only "core" player on the roster.

As is the case with every major league player the Brewers hold rights on Fielder, Yo, Parra, Braun, Hart, Weeks, Hardy, Hall for 6 years, regardless if they are on one year or multiple...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (logan3825) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 13:24:25 GMT

I think the fact that if we were talking about the starting rotation right now we would probably be arguing whether Suppan, McClung or Villanueva should be our 5th starter should be some indication on how overpaid Suppan is. I know he went for the going rate for starting pitchers on the free agent market, but I think it is a good example of how little you get for your money in free agency. You are paying a ton of money and alot of years for a guy who is likely to be getting worse as the...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (TheCrew07) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 11:48:43 GMT

joepepsi wrote:
That the key talent and center of the team is young and under fiscal control enables the Brewers to throw cash at average veterans to fill holes. Signing Suppan served as notice to fans and MLB players the team was willing to add experienced veterans to fill holes rather than continue with recent patterns of auditioning NRIs and replacement level players.

The "key" talent...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (rluzinski) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 11:27:40 GMT

Only time will tell how Suppan actually performs over the next two years, so we'll just see how that plays out. He's on the wrong side of the age curve, though, so it's not a good idea to extrapolate out his current performance forever.

Yes, the fans loved the Suppan signing but fans are fickle and most don't even seem to like him anymore. In the end, winning is going to make the bigger statement than picking up free agents, so baseball decisions sould be made with...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (joepepsi) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 10:50:56 GMT

TooLiveBrew wrote:
I think you are underestimating the value of a league average pitcher who makes 32-34 starts a year and pitches 190+ innings

He's pointing out that in the not too distant future, Soup is no longer going to be a pitcher you want working that much.

Also, you are not considering that signing Suppan sent a clear message the Brewers intended to be...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (TooLiveBrew) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 09:36:06 GMT
I think you are underestimating the value of a league average pitcher who makes 32-34 starts a year and pitches 190+ innings

He's pointing out that in the not too distant future, Soup is no longer going to be a pitcher you want working that much.

Also, you are not considering that signing Suppan sent a clear message the Brewers intended to be "players" in MLB from now on. Just changing the image of the organization had to factor in being...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (joepepsi) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 08:32:54 GMT
I think you are underestimating the value of a league average pitcher who makes 32-34 starts a year and pitches 190+ innings. You are selling Doug and Mark short if you think they only saw Suppan through baseball cliches. Ted Lilly signed with the Cubs for almost identical terms at the same time. 4 years/$40 million. Their career numbers to that point were similar. Also, you are not considering that signing Suppan sent a clear message the Brewers intended to be "players" in MLB from...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (rluzinski) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 07:51:43 GMT
I used ERA because that's what everyone seems to care about. And it "should" have been around 4.4 last year (IIRC) and should be around maybe 4.75 this year, so it looks pretty representative over the last 2. I'm not trying to suggest that a 4.6 ERA starting pitcher doesn't have value, especially one that's proven to be durable. My concern is that sometime soon, its reasonable to assume that Suppan will slip from barely average to decidedly below average. When that...

Re: Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (Ennder) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 07:51:14 GMT
I didn't mind the Suppan deal though I don't like how backloaded it was so we can't trade him. What his signing did was give us a little stability in a rotation that really didn't have any and allow us to not rush Gallardo/Parra and not be quite as worried about Sheets staying healthy. So far Suppan has been worth what we payed him and if we don't re-sign Sheets or Sabathia I'll be glad we have him next year too even if he is overpaid these next couple years.

Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

feeds@yuku.com (Mass Haas) — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 06:34:59 GMT

Recruiting Sheets

Roy Oswalt promises to deliver yet another recruiting pitch to Milwaukee Brewers...