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SABR FAQ - First Draft

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rluzinski	SABR FAQ - First Draft		Lead	[-]
Posts: 16954 August 15, 2005 2:03 PM	Tags : None Well, we got the separate "Statistical Analysis" thread. Hopefully we can develop it into a great resource for not only general SABR information, but hopefully a nice source of Brewer related statistical analysis as well. There's some great links here already; Let's add some more. Eventually we'll clean this thread up and have everything nice and organized. "Make love, not war" ~ Me
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pogokat	Re: SABR FAQ	#1	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8512 August 15, 2005 2:08 PM Dir of Minor League Ops	sounds great, get crackin' You've Read it, You Can't Un-read It! Might as Well
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brettac1	Re: SABR FAQ	#2	[url]	[-]
Posts: 10250 August 15, 2005 2:31 PM	I think that is a great idea. If someone doesn't have a handle on what a stat is trying to describe, they could post a question in that forum rather than wasting a bunch of posts in a regular thread in the MLB forum. EDIT: Also, it would be a good place to maybe post articles/links/new thoughts that those of us who are stat-leaning individuals, where they would probably be more easily discussed, i.e. it wouldn't fall off the 1st page of topics so quickly. _____________ "Over my dead body." - Billy Beane, when asked if his team would bunt, prior to the 2000 ALDS "The triple of Scott Hatteberg's imagination was actually a home run."
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EdgarDiazRocks	Re: SABR FAQ	#3	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3404 August 15, 2005 2:38 PM	Oh and please inform us all on who exactly the mysterious "Replacement Player" is . . . . And why PECOTA's formula is a secret akin to Nuclear Launch Codes . . . ------------------------------------ "I look at a GM and see a certain philosophy in how to run a team: win a championship, win a division, get competitive or get a team out of the cellar. We have been put together to win the division with the chance to win the championship. ... This team is not built to win a championship (only) and then fall back. We've had a chance to win every year, year in and year out, for 15 years in a row. - John Smoltz on John Schuerholz
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tomwopat	Re: SABR FAQ	#4	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1202 August 15, 2005 2:43 PM	Baseball-Reference.com's "Bullpen" Wiki and Wiki Gonzalez, the Baseball Think Factory encyclopedia are good SABR-ish resources for this kind of information. But I'd be all for having a BF.net authored wiki of our own. edit- fix formatting -- losing is a disease...
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rluzinski	Re: SABR FAQ	#5	[url]	[-]
Posts: 16954 August 15, 2005 2:44 PM	Oh and please inform us all on who exactly the mysterious "Replacement Player" is Why he's 80% of an average guy of course... so like 5-7 and 120 lbs. Eckstein! Seriously, a seperate forum sureeee would be nice. Atleast we wouldn't waste everyone's time posting the same thing over and over again. We could just link to a thread. It's nice to have Brewer-centric SABR posts. Like showing Lee's RBI's are mostly a function of opportunity, for instance. It would be nice having one pinned thread with just links to SABR-centric websites, like the one's above. "Make love, not war" ~ Me
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brettac1	Re: SABR FAQ	#6	[url]	[-]
Posts: 10250 August 15, 2005 2:45 PM	From Keith Woolner's old site: www.stathead.com/articles...r/vorp.htm Based on research I conducted and published in Baseball Prospectus 2002, replacement level is set at 80% of the positional average rate of offense for most positions (85% is used for catchers, 75% is used for 1B/DH). Replacement level for pitchers is figured separately for starting and relieving, as detailed in BP2002: Starting pitcher replacement level = 1.37 * League RA - 0.66 Relief pitcher replacement level = 1.70 * League RA - 2.27 ... Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous studies I've done, but have not published -- I may finally get around to it this year). The same delta is used for all positions (this is a possible area for future research). _____________ "Over my dead body." - Billy Beane, when asked if his team would bunt, prior to the 2000 ALDS "The triple of Scott Hatteberg's imagination was actually a home run."
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EdgarDiazRocks	Re: SABR FAQ	#7	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3404 August 15, 2005 3:26 PM	*Quote:* Based on research I conducted and published in Baseball Prospectus 2002, replacement level is set at 80% of the positional average rate of offense for most positions (85% is used for catchers, 75% is used for 1B/DH). Replacement level for pitchers is figured separately for starting and relieving, as detailed in BP2002: Starting pitcher replacement level = 1.37 * League RA - 0.66 Relief pitcher replacement level = 1.70 * League RA - 2.27 ... Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous studies I've done, but have not published -- I may finally get around to it this year). The same delta is used for all positions (this is a possible area for future research). Zzzzzz.. . . . .Z....Zz.......Z..z..z....zzz . . .snork Uh . .huh? Did you say something? I drifted off there. Oh yeah Corey Sullivan sucks because he's hitting 5.3(%?) worse than a nebulous mathmatical formula that changes every time a CF comes to the plate. Yep, makes perfect sense. So sorry Let me suggest another book Zero: The Biography of a Dangerous Idea As in Zero point. ------------------------------------ "I look at a GM and see a certain philosophy in how to run a team: win a championship, win a division, get competitive or get a team out of the cellar. We have been put together to win the division with the chance to win the championship. ... This team is not built to win a championship (only) and then fall back. We've had a chance to win every year, year in and year out, for 15 years in a row. - John Smoltz on John Schuerholz
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brettac1	Re: SABR FAQ	#8	[url]	[-]
Posts: 10250 August 15, 2005 4:10 PM	Oh yeah Corey Sullivan sucks because he's hitting 5.3(%?) worse than a nebulous mathmatical formula that changes every time a CF comes to the plate. Sullivan's VORP is -5.7, actually. But it's not % points, it's Runs Below the mythological Replacement Player. It's cumulative, but an easier way to show his VORPr (his VORP/gm.) extrapolated over 162 games, as I am want to do. Sullivan's VORPr is -.092, which means he costs his team a full run (in comparision to the RP) per 10 games or so, or about 15 runs a season, using the rule of 10 - 1.5 wins. You can wake up now. _____________ "Over my dead body." - Billy Beane, when asked if his team would bunt, prior to the 2000 ALDS "The triple of Scott Hatteberg's imagination was actually a home run."
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EdgarDiazRocks	Re: SABR FAQ	#9	[url]	[-]
Posts: 3404 August 15, 2005 8:28 PM	Runs Below the mythological Replacement Player. It's cumulative, but an easier way to show his VORPr (his VORP/gm.) extrapolated over 162 games, as I am want to do. Sullivan's VORPr is -.092, which means he costs his team a full run Well of course it's runs. Because not only do we get to make up "Player X", but then we get to "translate" his made up batting stats into made up runs scored and in the case of WARP include made up fielding and baserunning stats. And then all this is throwm into one big hopper and out spits a one size fits all number that anyone can use. -5.7. That's much worse than 28.8. Fire Him! These "one size fits all" numbers like Win Shares, Warp3 and VORP do really drive me nuts. It's like going shopping with the wife for a pair of pants. I go to the men's section, collect the right series of data for my body and buy a pair of pants. The inches around my waist the inches of inseam She goes to the wall picks out the arbitary number somebody assigned despite any sort of acknowledgment that girls might have different body shapes. 5'2" with wider hips? thats a "12(?)" 6'4" with thin hips? Also a "12" . . . It's why I can get a pair of pants in 10 minutes & a then have to wait an hour as she tries on 60 pairs to "find one that fits" It's the same with these numbers . . . In 1987 Tony Gwynn had a WARP3 of 10.8 and Eric Davis 10.3. Wow how exciting. They both were 10+ runs better than "Player X!" Despie the facts that they had totaly different seasons and are totally different players. Nothing is better than Tony Gwynn raw numbers to wallow around in. Thanks to Retrosheet I see that . . . In '87 Gwynn hit .370 /.447/.511 wit a bb/k ratio of 82/35(!!) in 157 games Didn't really care which hand you threw with RHP .376 /.457/.541 LHP .361/.433 /.470 and despite hitting only 7 HR and having nobody but John Kruk behind him, scored 119 times. Davis on the other hand hit .293/.399/.593 with 37(!!) HR and a bb/k rate of 84/134 in a injury shortened (read average Eric Davis) season of 129 games. Though RHP could handle Davis a lot better . . . RHP .272/.380/.526 LHP .340/.440/.741 And thanks to having hitters like Buddy Bell, Kal Daniels and Dave Parker behind him Davis scored 120 times! One more than Gwynn! I often hear how RBI is a useless stat, but in my opinon "Runs Scored" is overvalued by SABER formulas. removing the times that they scored themselves (HR), Gwinn reached bases a whopping 109 times more than Davis, yet had his teammates leave him out to dry on the bases. So Davis' WARP3 rewards him for having teammates who can drive him in. At least more than "Player X" teammates can. Also this just in, there is a rumor that "Player X" is secretly Scott Podsednik's older brother Rex. ------------------------------------ "I look at a GM and see a certain philosophy in how to run a team: win a championship, win a division, get competitive or get a team out of the cellar. We have been put together to win the division with the chance to win the championship. ... This team is not built to win a championship (only) and then fall back. We've had a chance to win every year, year in and year out, for 15 years in a row. - John Smoltz on John Schuerholz
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rluzinski	Re: SABR FAQ	#10	[url]	[-]
Posts: 16954 August 15, 2005 8:33 PM	So yeh, anyway... Brian, can we get a "Statistical Analysis" forum please? It might cut down on some of these little bickersand could prove to be a valuable resource for Brewer-centric statistical analysis. "Make love, not war" ~ Me
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brettac1	Re: SABR FAQ	#11	[url]	[-]
Posts: 10250 August 15, 2005 8:38 PM	EDR, just so you know (I'm pretty sure you do), I'm in agreement with you on VORP, as I have said a bunch of times before. I once in a while do like to use VORPr, though. _____________ "Over my dead body." - Billy Beane, when asked if his team would bunt, prior to the 2000 ALDS "The triple of Scott Hatteberg's imagination was actually a home run."
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batman	Re: SABR FAQ	#12	[url]	[-]
Posts: 5329 August 15, 2005 8:39 PM	I don't necessarily disagree with you, EDR, but consider that the distinction between those two players in WARP3 is due to defense, not offense. Davis' historically-adjusted equivalent average was .330 compared with Gwynn's .342, so the BP metrics definitely recognize the superiority of Gwynn at the plate. On defense, Gwynn gets credited as being four runs above average as a right-fielder while Davis is 13 runs above average as a center-fielder. That's why their WARP scores are similar. How much you decide to trust BP's defensive stats is up to you. ~Bill _____ Bill Batterman \| batman@brewerfan.net \| The Daily Brew "I'm going to be saying one day, telling my grandkids, 'I played with him.' That's a promise." -- Ryan Knox, referring to Rickie Weeks
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pogokat	Re: SABR FAQ	#13	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8512 August 15, 2005 8:40 PM Dir of Minor League Ops	rluz...i can't give you a forum, but i can pin a thread to the top, i think... You've Read it, You Can't Un-read It! Might as Well
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rluzinski	Re: SABR FAQ	#14	[url]	[-]
Posts: 16954 August 15, 2005 8:42 PM	batman supplied a link to an explanation for EQA... "Make love, not war" ~ Me
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1992casey	Re: SABR FAQ	#15	[url]	[-]
Posts: 11294 August 15, 2005 10:30 PM Usability Director	I like the idea of original writing by Brewerfan.net paritcipants, with links to bibliographic material. I think the way to handle this is to make this thread a rough draft for something that could be used as a more polished FAQ. I see a two pronged approach. One would be to list links to potentially useful articles. The other would be ask questions we'd like to see answered. I'll get it going with some links: General Bill James Primer Tango on Baseball Cyril Morong's Sabermetric Research Sabernomics Blog Dan Agonistes Blog Baseball Players and Age The Effects of Age on Hitting Is Sosa Finished? Peak ages for hitters Age and Established Win Shares The Science of Forecasting ESPN.com: MLB - Cleveland's contracts could backfire (Dec., 2001) Age and Hitting I Age and Hitting II Age and Hitting III What is a Normal Career Trajectory? Productive Outs Yet Another Productive Outs Article Productive Outs Are Not Productive Productive Outs I Productive Outs II The Truth About Productive Outs Productive Outs (Dan Agonistes Blog) The Effect of Ks Neyer - Swing and a miss: Not Milwaukee's biggest problem Neyer - Why pitchers desperately need K's Do Strikeouts Matter? Just Another Out? Stat Descriptions Introduction to VORP: Value Over Replacement Player Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Part 1 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Part 2 WHIP it good ... statistically (covers 8 different stats) And the Winning Number is... OPS Misc. Stats vs. Scouts: The Great Debate Resisting the feud (critiques above article) 13 Reasons Why Pro Baseball Can't Teach Hitting by Rob Ellis
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1992casey	Re: SABR FAQ	#16	[url]	[-]
Posts: 11294 August 15, 2005 10:31 PM Usability Director	One category missing from the above is clutch hitting. I can find the stuff, but I'm now too tired. Maybe another time unless someone beats me to it. This has always bugged me. When we evaluate players, we always talk about 10 runs being equal to a win. I've seen it so much I accept it as fact. But I'd love to see a couple links to more information about it.
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bjamesw22	Re: SABR FAQ	#17	[url]	[-]
Posts: 2011 August 15, 2005 10:33 PM Banned User	That is awesome that you took the time to put all of those in. Good work.
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pogokat	Re: SABR FAQ	#18	[url]	[-]
Posts: 8512 August 15, 2005 10:41 PM Dir of Minor League Ops	www.baseballgraphs.com/ Good stuff on pythagorean's here... You've Read it, You Can't Un-read It! Might as Well
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rluzinski	Re: SABR FAQ	#19	[url]	[-]
Posts: 16954 August 16, 2005 11:17 AM	hardballtimes.com "Make love, not war" ~ Me
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CRicks28	Re: SABR FAQ	#20	[url]	[-]
Posts: 504 August 16, 2005 12:16 PM	I have seen this posted on bf.net before, but I am interested in seeing a table that lists "expected runs" for different situations during a baseball game (ex. runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out). Could someone post a link on where I could find a table with that information?
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